Some think that the “eye test” is the be-all, end-all for football evaluation, that traditional film scouting is – and always will be – superior to any sort of quantitative analysis. At Dynasty Think Tank, we believe that there are two halves to any good evaluation of a player, and advanced metric analysis is key to understanding a player’s professional potential.
Dynasty Think Tank‘s approach to numbers is concise but incisive: by analyzing a player’s athleticism through integrated use of Combine testing results, we can reveal raw physical value. Our metrics provide context to our film analysis, and are grounded in and informed by the practical application of physics to the game of football. These positional scores help indicate unheralded diamonds in the rough who would have been overlooked just by scouting tape or production, and give depth and nuance to what we can see.
The three main components of our metric scouting are Speed Score, Agility Score, and Catch Radius, though we are continually innovating new ways to understand athletic prowess through measurables:
- Speed Score is a metric that was pioneered by the work of Football Outsiders. This is rooted in the physics idea of momentum, as a 220 lb. player running at 20 miles-per-hour requires much more force to stop than a 190 lb. player at the same speed. The larger the score, the better.
- This metric is calculated as (Weight*200)/(40 Time^4).
- Our own Jay Holmes created an Agility Score based off the same premise as the Speed Score: it requires more natural agility for a big player to make quick cuts and get to top gear quickly. Again, the larger the score, the better.
- The Agility Score is (Weight*200)/((10yd Split + 3 Cone + Shuttle)^2).
- The Catch Radius formula is fairly common as well. We essentially use the Pythagorean Theory of triangles (a^2 + b^2 = c^2) to assess the maximum range a player has around him that he could catch a ball in. Imagine a large, invisible dome around the player; that is his Catch Radius.
- This is calculated as: the square root of [((1440/40Time)+(1080/3Cone)+(720/Shuttle))/3)^2)]+[(720/Shuttle]))/3))+((Ht+Arms+(Vertical+Broad/2))^2)].
From this point, it takes simply normalizing the metrics (putting them on a relative similar scale to each other) and weighting them into a synthesized positional score for each position. We are still working on offensive line and defensive positional scores, but the following are the weights for offensive skill positions:
- Quarterback: SS=1, AS=3, CR=2. In Excel, ((SS+(AS*3)+(CR*2))/6.
- Running Back: SS=2, AS=3, CR=1. In Excel, ((SS*2)+(AS*3)+CR)/6.
- Wide Receiver and Tight End: SS=1, AS=2, CR=3. In Excel, (((SS+(AS*2)+(CR*3))/6.